Which League One gaffers are the biggest chokers?

Mike Holden by Mike Holden / 01 December 2016, 13:52

Mike Holden (@Ratings_Mike) uses profit/loss tables, dating back from August 2008, to identify which League One gaffers are most likely to choke when starting a match as the odds-on favourite:

Premier LeagueChampionship | League Two

Bradford City’s League One promotion prospects have declined alongside rising expectations but we probably shouldn’t be too surprised, it’s nothing new for Stuart McCall. The Bantams boss failed to win ten out of 17 games during his first spell as manager at Valley Parade. Now he’s on four wins out of eight since returning in the summer.

The Yorkshire club were 3/1 favourites for the title after 12 matches but their unbeaten record went at Oxford and they’ve now taken just 11 points from the last available 24 following successive away defeats at Southend and Swindon. The clues could be seen earlier, though, in their failure to land short prices against Port Vale (4/5), Oldham (17/20) and Bristol Rovers (10/11).

Consistency is the name of the game and McCall’s record in this regard provides a stark contrast to the three managers he is trying to compete with at the top. Graham Alexander leads the way with Scunthorpe and he boasts an impressive 38 per cent profit when chalked up shorter than evens. Predecessor Phil Parkinson is next across a hefty 65-match sample, and they are both being hotly-pursued by Chris Wilder at Sheffield United.

Richie Barker tops the table, having choked regularly during his 16-month stint as Crawley boss, a trend he has maintained in recent home games as caretaker boss at MK Dons by failing to win home games against Walsall and Chesterfield. But he won’t be around for much longer as caretaker, with owner Pete Winkleman expected to appoint a new manager at stadium:mk in the next week or so.

Phil Brown is a mildly surprising inclusion towards the top of the list but then his reputation outstrips his actual achievements at Southend. Brown, of course, has shown himself to be very adept at landing prize scalps and winning big matches on television but he needed the play-offs to get the Shrimpers out of League Two a couple of years ago due to their general inconsistency.

Uwe Rosler has the best record for taking care of business against lesser opposition, winning 24 out of 34 matches when odds-on during his time at Brentford, which just goes to show that he could have probably held out for a bigger job than Fleetwood. The Cod Army aren’t likely to be shorter than even money too often this season but Rosler has got them into play-off contention and they’re currently on two wins out of two since the German arrived.

Keith Hill also deserves a mention. It’s a bit of a shock to learn that Rochdale have been odds-on 60 times under his guidance, given how they usually operate to one of the lowest budgets at whatever even they operate but it’s credit to Hill that they quietly cope with those expectations to consistently churn out profits nonetheless.

League One Chokers

Notes

  • Pld = the number of matches each manager has started with his team priced up at a best price of shorter than evens (digital odds 2.0).
  • P/L = the overall profit/loss figure for each manager had you placed a £10 stake on each of those matches started as odds-on favourites.
  • % = the percentage of profit/loss when divided by the overall stake for the number of games played.
  • The tables include all matches played since the start of the 2008/09 season across the four English leagues, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue U.
Betting Odds Tips

Managers Departed

Last man down

Darren Moore
Darren Moore
(Doncaster Rovers)
1st March
VIEW ALL CASUALTIES
x
Bet £10 Get £40 in Free Bets
Exclusive Promo Code
C40
JOIN NOW
#AD New customers using promo code C40 only. 1x per customer. Min £10/€10 bet. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Free bets paid as 2x £15/€15 (expires after 30 days). Max £10 Bonus. 35x wagering requirement. Max redeemable amount £25. Casino bonus expires 72 hours from issue. Eligibility rules, free-bet rules, game, location, payment-method, currency restrictions, stake contributions and terms and conditions apply. 18+ begambleaware.org.
x
Up to £100 in bet credits
Exclusive Promo Code
100BET365
JOIN NOW
#AD Open Account Offer. Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code ‘100BET365’ can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. 18+ begambleaware.org.
Advert Disclaimer
Thesackrace.com is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Thesackrace.com accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
Next in firing line Hottest Manager Markets

Premier League

Next Manager to Leave

Arsenal

Next Manager

Atletico Madrid

Next Manager

Barcelona

Next Manager

Celtic

Next Manager

Colchester United

Next Manager

Crystal Palace

Next Manager

England

Next Manager

Liverpool

Next Manager

Manchester United

Next Manager

Newcastle United

Next Manager

Northampton Town

Next Manager

Paris St Germain

Next Manager

Real Madrid

Next Manager

Republic of Ireland

Next Manager

Southampton

Next Manager

Valencia

Next Manager
x
£20 Risk Free First Bet Money Back In Cash
New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any sportsbook market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is €/£20. T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
BET HERE
We use cookies to provide statistics that help give you the best experience of our site. By continuing to use the site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn more
Got It