Will there be another Premier League sacking this season?

Jack Kitson by Jack Kitson / 23 January 2020, 15:30

In only two of the previous 27 Premier League seasons has a managerial departure not taken place in the period between February and the final game of the season.

The campaigns in question were 1995/96 and 2007/08, meaning there was at least one managerial change during the aforementioned four-month period in each of the other 25 seasons.

When just individual months are taken into account, both February and March have witnessed 20 departures apiece in the Premier League era, with 11 taking place in April, and just five in May - note that this doesn’t include managers that have vacated their posts after the conclusion of the season, only before the final game is played.

Premier League Departures: February to May (1993-2019)

  • February: 20

  • March: 20

  • April: 11

  • May: 5

The current campaign has already seen six managerial casualties, five of which took place in a chaotic six-week phase between November and December, including Mauricio Pochettino and Unai Emery.

At the time of writing, we are still waiting for the first top-flight exit of the new decade, but the question is: will there even be another managerial change this season?

As we’ve already highlighted, history tells us that it’s pretty unlikely that there will be a managerial blackout from February to May, considering that this period of the season has produced a departure in 25 of the last 27 seasons, which equates to 92.6%.

Last season Claude Puel (Leicester) and Claudio Ranieri (Fulham) were both ejected from their hot seats in February, and in the season prior to that Mauricio Pellegrino was given the boot by Southampton in March, then in April Alan Pardew became the second West Brom boss to be axed.

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Solskjaer is currently the favourite in the Sack Race

Verdict

At the time of writing it’s Man Utd manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer who is the new favourite in the Premier League Sack Race following a run of three defeats in four league games, including Wednesday’s lacklustre 2-0 loss at home to Burnley - read more here.

In the aftermath of the defeat #OleOut was trending on Twitter but as we’ve said many a time, a departure would come as a huge surprise, with a summer switch more likely at Old Trafford.

However, you simply never know, two of United’s last three managers were sacked in-season, including David Moyes who was given the boot as late as April (2014).

Eddie Howe and Dean Smith went into the most recent wave of fixtures feeling the heat, yet both bosses picked up pivotal wins, with Bournemouth swatting aside Bournemouth, and Aston Villa coming from behind to secure a last-gasp victory against Watford.

Both managers should be given the season to rescue their respective sides, but a succession of defeats could result in owners taking action in a bid to avoid the dreaded drop.

Norwich have been cut adrift at the bottom of the table but with 14 games left there’s still time for Daniel Farke’s men to mount an escape. Given that the German orchestrated the club’s superb Championship winning promotion campaign it’s difficult to see the club pull the trigger, even if they are relegated.

Anyone else?

Given that he’s only been in the job for a matter of weeks, it’s a surprise to see that one bookmaker has installed David Moyes as the fifth favourite for the chop, at 20/1.

With that said, William Hill are offering odds of 8/1 for there not to be another Premier League departure, which could well prove fruitful come the end of the season.

Next Premier League Manager To Leave Odds

Roy Hodgson

Team: Crystal Palace


Dean Smith

Team: Aston Villa


Eddie Howe

Team: Bournemouth


Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

Team: Manchester United


David Moyes

Team: West Ham United


Pep Guardiola

Team: Manchester City


Daniel Farke

Team: Norwich City


Steve Bruce

Team: Newcastle United


Nigel Pearson

Team: Watford


Graham Potter

Team: Brighton & Hove Albion


Ralph Hasenhuttl

Team: Southampton


Frank Lampard

Team: Chelsea


Sean Dyche

Team: Burnley


Jose Mourinho

Team: Tottenham Hotspur


Mikel Arteta

Team: Arsenal


Carlo Ancelotti

Team: Everton


Brendan Rodgers

Team: Leicester City


Nuno Santo

Team: Wolverhampton Wanderers


Jurgen Klopp

Team: Liverpool


Chris Wilder

Team: Sheffield United


Odds Correct as of 2020-02-28 16:30:41

Managers Departed

Last man down

Graham Westley
Graham Westley
(Stevenage)
16th February
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