Which Premier League gaffer is most likely to crumble when odds-on?

In the fourth and final instalment Mike Holden (@Ratings_Mike) turns his gaze to the Premier League where he uses profit/loss tables, dating back from August 2008, to identify which top-flight manager is the most likely to choke when starting a match as the odds-on favourite.

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If Liverpool are going to be serious challengers for the Premier League title this season, then Jurgen Klopp will have to do something about his unwanted habit of letting points slip against lesser teams. The German produced a profitable season from odds-on fixtures only twice over the course of his seven years at Borussia Dortmund - and they were both campaigns when he lifted the Bundesliga title.

Last season, Klopp failed to win seven out 16 matches against bottom-half opposition, with the Reds chalked-up at shorter than evens in five of them. However, it’s a problem the Merseysiders have already gone some way towards addressing this term with seven odds-on victories out of eight - the notable exception being the 2-0 defeat at Burnley back in August.

The same goes for Mauricio Pochettino at Tottenham. The Argentinian leads the way in our chokers table having failed to take care of business in 35 out of 68 matches, racking up losses of 13.57 per cent. It’s a record that can be mostly attributed to spells in charge of Espanyol and Southampton, but he remains short of breaking even at White Hart Lane.

Last season, ten draws in 14 matches against the teams that finished between eight to 14th ultimately prevented Spurs from taking the title race down to the wire. And with so many stronger contenders in the reckoning this time around, the Londoners simply cannot afford to drop so many cheap points.

Pep Guardiola and Arsene Wenger are both heavyweights when it comes to coping with big expectations. They show a tidy profit of around 2.5 per cent from a combined total of 457 odds-on matches. No matter how cagey the bookies try to be when pricing-up Guardiola teams, they never quite stoop low enough. His three season at Bayern Munich producing 80 odds-on wins out of 98, following on from 110 wins out of 144 at Barcelona.

However, this is one regard in which Jose Mourinho still outperforms Guardiola. The Portuguese has posted profits in odds-on territory at Inter Milan and Real Madrid, then his dismissal at Chelsea came just before his profits there came into jeopardy, although he is currently trading at a loss with Manchester United following Sunday’s failure to beat West Ham.

Antonio Conte is operating to only half the sample of Wenger, Guardiola and Mourinho but he has the best figures, with a stunning 18.79 per cent profit margin across 102 matches. The former Juventus boss won 74 out of 93 matches when shorter than evens with the Old Lady and he’s currently on eight wins out of nine at Stamford Bridge.

Eddie Howe and Sean Dyche are flying the flag for British managers and also deserve a mention. If the ability to hold your nerve and get results when they’re most expected is the true sign of a manager capable of managing the biggest clubs, then Howe, in particular, appears ready to take on one of the top jobs. Bournemouth have been odds-on favourites 68 times with Howe at the helm, and they’ve won 48.

Notes

• Pld = the number of matches each manager has started with his team priced up at a best price of shorter than evens (digital odds 2.0).
• P/L = the overall profit/loss figure for each manager had you placed a £10 stake on each of those matches started as odds-on favourites.
• % = the percentage of profit/loss when divided by the overall stake for the number of games played.
• The tables include all matches played since the start of the 2008/09 season across the four English leagues, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue U.